We rebuild the forecast from its drivers, not from last year plus a percentage. Revenue comes apart into volume, price, mix and timing; cost comes apart into what is fixed, what steps, and what genuinely varies. Every re-cut names which driver moved and by how much. The model is one integrated three-statement build — P&L, balance sheet and cash tied together — so a change in payment terms shows up in the cash line automatically instead of being remembered.
Then we stress it. Not a “conservative case”, which is just the plan with a haircut, but the specific question: what has to be true for this to break, and how far away is that? Runway, covenant headroom and the first month you go negative all fall out of the same model.
Modeling specialists for the three-statement build and the scenario work